Market Commentary

April market commentary

Global share markets were all over the place in April. The month kicked off with a tariff tit-for-tat that culminated in China slapping 125% duties on US imports after Trump imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, in addition to a scattershot approach to the rest of the world. Volatility went through the roof, hammering equity markets and the US dollar.

A few days later, Trump said backsies on some of the more randomly punitive tariffs and the S&P 500 rocketed by more than 9% in a day. The relief was short-lived, with markets shaken anew when the President threatened to oust US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not playing ball…and then just as swiftly backtracked.

This set the tone for the month, as investors struggled to keep up with the US administration’s capricious policymaking and outlandish threats, hollow or otherwise. Meanwhile, the economy buckled under pressure, with first-quarter US GDP shrinking by 0.3% (annualised), after growing by a robust 2.4% the previous quarter.

Our local market fared particularly poorly amid the tumult as the global economy’s weakened outlook weighed on our recovery prospects. While the Reserve Bank did its best to shore up sentiment with another 25 basis-point rate cut, consumer confidence remained subdued and retail spending was softer than expected in March.

Conversely, the Aussie market was remarkably upbeat after core inflation nudged under the central bank’s target for the first time in three years, convincing investors that multiple rate cuts were now all but guaranteed. Resource stocks also found support on speculation that some minerals might be exempt from tariffs.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished March down -0.8%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq eked out a 0.8% gain. The NZX 50 fell -3.0% over the month, while the ASX 200 gained 3.6%. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped -1.0% lower as fresh data pointed to a still stuttering economy further hamstrung by excessive government borrowing.

Elsewhere, the first major elections since Trump’s inauguration suggested that politicians who’d previously parroted Trumpian rhetoric have quickly become tainted by association. Canada’s Liberal Party, helmed by Mark Carney, romped to victory in the country’s general election, overturning the Conservative’s recent hefty lead, thanks to a campaign focused on defying their neighbour’s re-anointed leader. It was a similar story in Australia where PM and centre-left Anthony Albanese clinched a second term by a landslide, in a dramatic comeback against the previously dominant-looking conservatives.

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 March 2025 to 30 April 2025:

  GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 March 2025 to 30 April 2025: