Market Commentary
November market commentary
In the US, the longest government shutdown in history finally came to an end. A messy backlog of delayed data trickled out, painting a picture of an economy losing puff: rising unemployment, weakening retail sales, and a notable slide in consumer confidence. Investors promptly revived their favourite hobby of betting on rate cuts. But jitters persisted, especially around tech valuations and liquidity: a reminder that nothing ruins a party quite like turning on the lights.
Third quarter corporate earnings provided some light relief. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations, the highest rate in four years, with overall earnings growth sneaking into double figures. Nvidia had another blockbuster quarter, though investors struggled to get celebrations off the ground amid concerns that this was another sign of reckless overspending on AI.
We weren’t immune to offshore nerves at home. The mood wasn’t helped by unemployment creeping up to 5.3%, slowing wage growth, and the relentless rise of grocery bills. Still, the Reserve Bank delivered again, taking the OCR to its lowest in three years. This, plus a relatively upbeat reporting season, had investors flashing a little more cash in a late-month rebound.
Markets across the pond were also weighed down by the global tech selloff, exacerbated by a resilient jobs market and hotter-than-expected inflation which all but destroyed hopes of another rate cut in the foreseeable. A brief mid-month rally failed to stick as miners, gold stocks, and banks all took turns dragging performance lower.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished November ‘up’ 0.1%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq fell by 1.5%. The NZX 50 slipped 0.5% lower over the month, while the ASX 200 lost a chunkier 3.0%.
The FTSE 100 ended November exactly where it started, a respectable achievement in a month where the Chancellor unveiled £26 billion in tax hikes and officials downgraded growth forecasts. More encouragingly, inflation eased slightly to 3.6%, fuelling hopes that borrowing costs would follow a similar trajectory.
GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 October 2025 to 30 November 2025:
GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 October 2024 to 30 November 2025:
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