Market Commentary

July market commentary

Global markets were largely upbeat in July, as the looming deadline for jacked-up tariffs prompted a flurry of diplomatic deal-making. The E.U. managed to wrangle a 50% discount to take their base tariff to 15%, averting a trade war between two economic behemoths that represent over a third of world trade. Meanwhile, China and the US agreed to disagree for a few more weeks.

US markets scaled record heights during the month against an ostensibly hearty economic backdrop, with consumer spending and business confidence up and jobless claims down. Investors cheered the potential stimulus promised by Trump’s colossal tax and spending Bill, apparently happy to kick the multi-trillion-dollar price tag can down the road for now.

Second-quarter reporting season kicked off with a series of tech-sector triumphs as Microsoft, Meta and Apple delivered hefty earnings beats. This came on the back of AI darling Nvidia becoming the world’s first company to reach a market cap of $4 trillion. Pharmaceuticals had a tougher time after President Trump snuck into their DMs to suggest they slash their prices in the US.

Investors were slightly more subdued at home as the economy continued to limp towards recovery. The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold, as expected. However, lower-than-expected inflation in the June quarter rekindled hopes of a further cut in August. Absent any significant broader catalysts (and due to our relatively small market), news on large individual stocks tended to move the needle. Infratil’s inclusion in the Australian blue-chip index lifted the market one day, while downbeat updates from Synlait Milk and Mainfreight dragged on performance the next.

Australia’s Reserve Bank also kept interest rates steady, surprising financial pundits who thought softening inflation and an uncertain growth trajectory provided enough ammunition for it to pull the trigger. The doves were emboldened by a notable labour market wobble later in the month, with just 2,000 jobs added in June compared to the 20,000 expected, and the lowest quarterly inflation reading in almost four years. The RBA is expected to rethink its choices in August.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished July up 2.2%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq rose 3.7%. The NZX 50 gained 1.8% over the month, while the ASX 200 finished 2.4% ahead. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 ended July up 4.2% in a surprise bit of outperformance that was at odds with its recent economic narrative. The UK economy shrank in May for the second month in a row and annual inflation climbed to 3.6% in June, its highest in more than a year.

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 30 June 2025 to 31 July 2025:

GBP and AUD / NZD exchange rate change from 31 July 2024 to 31 July 2025: